tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 586 at 13:10, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 586 Southwest Flight history → LAS 13:10 LIT 18:20 29% 7% 0.6% 52%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Little Rock on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Little Rock is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 10:31 → LIT 11:03DL 3040 8h 30m 100% 91%
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:59 → DFW 05:44AA 2921 3h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:41 → LIT 11:03AA 3632 · flown by Envoy 8h 04m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → LAS 05:02 → DFW 09:55AA 1780 2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:56 → LIT 13:18AA 3636 · flown by Envoy 6h 16m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 14:40 → LIT 15:12DL 3027 7h 12m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:59 → IAH 05:59UA 2840 3h 41m Houston IAH 09:40 → LIT 11:13UA 4371 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 14m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → IAH 11:11UA 2608 3h 09m Houston IAH 14:20 → LIT 15:58UA 5340 · flown by SkyWest 7h 58m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAS 10:25 → IAH 15:40UA 1711 2h 40m Houston IAH 18:20 → LIT 20:01UA 6150 · flown by Mesa 7h 36m 96% 82%
SouthwestDetails → LAS 05:05 → DEN 07:55WN 2223 4h 00m Denver DEN 11:55 → LIT 15:05WN 4302 8h 00m 100% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAS 12:14 → IAH 17:25UA 2492 55m Houston IAH 18:20 → LIT 20:01UA 6150 · flown by Mesa 5h 47m 73% 63%
UnitedDetails → LAS 14:25 → ORD 20:23UA 706 1h 07m Chicago ORD 21:30 → LIT 23:37UA 5228 · flown by SkyWest 7h 12m 74% 60%
AmericanDetails → LAS 15:23 → DFW 20:24AA 2376 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:11 → LIT 22:35AA 4079 · flown by Envoy 5h 12m 55% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON