tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 1277 at 09:50, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1277 Southwest Flight history → LAS 09:50 MAF 14:00 13% 2% 0.7% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Midland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Midland is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → LAS 05:05 → DAL 09:45WN 2216 2h 00m Dallas DAL 11:45 → MAF 12:55WN 4579 5h 50m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:59 → IAH 05:59UA 2840 3h 36m Houston IAH 09:35 → MAF 11:07UA 6186 · flown by Mesa 8h 08m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 33m Denver DEN 10:05 → MAF 12:59UA 5333 · flown by SkyWest 5h 29m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → LAS 05:02 → DFW 09:55AA 1780 2h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:32 → MAF 13:49AA 3652 · flown by Envoy 6h 47m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAS 08:00 → IAH 13:07UA 1181 3h 28m Houston IAH 16:35 → MAF 18:15UA 6233 · flown by Mesa 8h 15m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → IAH 11:11UA 2608 3h 24m Houston IAH 14:35 → MAF 16:15UA 6322 · flown by Mesa 8h 15m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:59 → DFW 05:44AA 2921 1h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:25 → MAF 08:50AA 5013 · flown by SkyWest 5h 51m 96% 81%
AmericanDetails → LAS 07:13 → DFW 12:06AA 617 3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:36 → MAF 16:53AA 3653 · flown by Envoy 7h 40m 98% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAS 16:34 → PHX 17:48AA 3186 1h 12m Phoenix PHX 19:00 → MAF 22:48AA 4892 · flown by SkyWest 4h 14m 70% 49%
AmericanDetails → LAS 12:47 → DFW 17:49AA 3285 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:35 → MAF 19:50AA 3657 · flown by Envoy 5h 03m 56% 44%
AmericanDetails → LAS 16:53 → DFW 21:49AA 3286 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:35 → MAF 23:59AA 5168 · flown by PSA 5h 06m 56% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON