Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1458 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 1458 LAS 07:10 → MCI 11:55 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest WN 2266 LAS 19:10 → MCI 23:55 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 39% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1458 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:10	MCI 11:55	8%	2%	0.5%	76%
WN 786 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 10:05	MCI 14:55	17%	3%	0.5%	100%worse than usual
F9 4506 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 10:52	MCI 15:47	25%	8%	1.0%	81%
WN 4748 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 16:00	MCI 20:45	34%	11%	0.6%	48%
WN 2267 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 20:55	MCI 01:45	34%	10%	0.6%	32%
WN 3079 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 14:35	MCI 19:25	37%	10%	0.6%	66%
WN 2266 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:10	MCI 23:55	41%	13%	0.8%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON