Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4590 at 22:50 is the safest bet, 27% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 4590 LAS 22:50 → MCO 06:25 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest B6 2832 LAS 14:55 → MCO 22:36 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4590 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:50	MCO 06:25	27%	7%	9.7%	83%
WN 4505 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 12:10	MCO 20:00	30%	9%	15.5%	45%
F9 1728 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 12:27	MCO 20:23	33%	14%	17.5%	62%
WN 1225 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 14:40	MCO 22:25	34%	11%	17.3%	27%
F9 1876 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 21:42	MCO 05:30	34%	15%	13.7%	71%
B6 2832 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 14:55	MCO 22:36	38%	10%	17.4%	86%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAS 00:59 → IAH 05:59UA 2840	1h 21m Houston	IAH 07:20 → MCO 10:51UA 2245	6h 52m	93%	72%
Delta Details →	LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → MCO 09:56DL 1213	6h 23m	90%	71%
American Details →	LAS 00:59 → DFW 05:44AA 2921	1h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:05 → MCO 10:49AA 2119	6h 50m	92%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON