Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2270 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 2270 LAS 06:10 → MDW 11:45 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 3200 LAS 19:55 → MDW 01:30 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 28% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2270 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 06:10	MDW 11:45	4%	1%	0.6%	96%
WN 2271 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 08:20	MDW 13:55	9%	3%	0.6%	75%
WN 2276 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 23:55	MDW 05:25	21%	5%	0.6%	84%
WN 4506 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 11:20	MDW 16:50	22%	5%	0.6%	56%
WN 2273 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 12:35	MDW 18:10	26%	8%	0.6%	54%
WN 2274 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 16:05	MDW 21:45	30%	11%	0.7%	50%
WN 3200 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:55	MDW 01:30	35%	13%	0.9%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON