tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 32–36% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
G4 52 Allegiant Flight history → LAS 15:12 MEM 20:38 32% 11% 0.9% 76%
WN 2069 Southwest Flight history → LAS 14:15 MEM 19:35 36% 9% 0.8% 31%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → MEM 09:27DL 2071 6h 54m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 2h 33m Denver DEN 11:05 → MEM 14:26UA 1112 6h 56m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:44 → MSP 16:54DL 2272 3h 11m Minneapolis MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest 8h 31m 98% 85%
SouthwestDetails → LAS 05:05 → DEN 07:55WN 2223 2h 35m Denver DEN 10:30 → MEM 13:55WN 4698 6h 50m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → LAS 05:50 → DTW 12:44DL 864 3h 16m Detroit DTW 16:00 → MEM 17:02DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest 9h 12m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → LAS 05:02 → DFW 09:55AA 1780 2h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:37 → MEM 14:16AA 3676 · flown by Envoy 7h 14m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:59 → ORD 06:45AA 2949 1h 20m Chicago ORD 08:05 → MEM 09:58AA 3683 · flown by Envoy 6h 59m 93% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:59 → IAH 05:59UA 2840 1h 21m Houston IAH 07:20 → MEM 09:05UA 5360 · flown by SkyWest 6h 06m 93% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAS 14:25 → ORD 20:23UA 706 57m Chicago ORD 21:20 → MEM 23:21UA 2317 6h 56m 63% 52%
AmericanDetails → LAS 16:34 → PHX 17:48AA 3186 1h 04m Phoenix PHX 18:52 → MEM 23:59AA 3923 · flown by Envoy 5h 25m 66% 47%
AmericanDetails → LAS 14:02 → DFW 19:03AA 777 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:55 → MEM 21:27AA 3262 5h 25m 61% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON