Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2404 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 2404 LAS 06:00 → MIA 13:53 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 1105 LAS 12:45 → MIA 20:41 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2404 American Flight history →	LAS 06:00	MIA 13:53	14%	3%	3.4%	84%
AA 2025 American Flight history →	LAS 23:35	MIA 07:40	21%	6%	1.4%	72%
AA 1080 American Flight history →	LAS 22:25	MIA 06:30	22%	7%	1.3%	86%
F9 4552 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 22:29	MIA 06:30	30%	16%	1.5%	74%
AA 1105 American Flight history →	LAS 12:45	MIA 20:41	35%	8%	1.4%	80%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAS 00:59 → IAH 05:59UA 2840	1h 26m Houston	IAH 07:25 → MIA 11:12UA 1966	7h 13m	95%	82%
American Details →	LAS 00:59 → DFW 05:44AA 2921	1h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:10 → MIA 11:11AA 3290	7h 12m	93%	73%
Southwest Details →	LAS 05:05 → DAL 09:45WN 2216	1h 45m Dallas	DAL 11:30 → MIA 15:20WN 1361	7h 15m	100%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON