Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4337 at 09:05 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 4337 LAS 09:05 → MKE 14:35 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest WN 2279 LAS 18:15 → MKE 23:50 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4337 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 09:05	MKE 14:35	12%	3%	0.6%	83%
WN 4136 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 20:25	MKE 01:55	32%	11%	0.6%	62%
WN 2279 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 18:15	MKE 23:50	35%	12%	0.7%	53%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	LAS 06:30 → DEN 09:20WN 2966	55m Denver	DEN 10:15 → MKE 13:40WN 1626	5h 10m	94%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON