Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1282 at 06:19 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 1282 LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 1542 LAS 17:20 → MSP 22:31 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1282 Delta Flight history →	LAS 06:19	MSP 11:22	7%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 2261 Delta Flight history →	LAS 09:32	MSP 14:39	13%	4%	0.6%	97%
DL 2272 Delta Flight history →	LAS 11:44	MSP 16:54	18%	4%	0.6%	80%
DL 2238 Delta Flight history →	LAS 13:31	MSP 18:42	23%	5%	0.7%	79%
DL 1542 Delta Flight history →	LAS 17:20	MSP 22:31	25%	8%	0.7%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON