Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2282 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 2282 LAS 05:00 → OAK 06:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 4270 LAS 19:50 → OAK 21:25 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2282 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 05:00	OAK 06:30	3%	1%	0.6%	90%
WN 5052 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:35	OAK 09:10	7%	2%	0.6%	92%
WN 1254 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 08:35	OAK 10:10	8%	2%	0.6%	92%
WN 322 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 10:50	OAK 12:30	14%	5%	0.6%	76%
WN 4488 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 13:30	OAK 15:10	26%	8%	0.6%	45%
WN 2289 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 21:55	OAK 23:30	30%	12%	0.6%	50%
WN 2286 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 17:10	OAK 18:45	31%	10%	0.7%	67%
WN 596 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:45	OAK 00:20	35%	11%	0.6%	36%
WN 5050 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 18:00	OAK 19:35	36%	13%	0.7%	54%
WN 4270 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:50	OAK 21:25	38%	14%	0.8%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON