tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Sacramento, leaving 06:10, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Kahului on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1457 Southwest Flight history → LAS 09:20 OGG 12:35 15% 4% 0.6% 97%worse than usual
AS 931 Alaska Flight history → LAS 07:05 OGG 10:12 19% 5% 1.0% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → LAS 10:20 → HNL 13:40WN 2240 3h 45m Honolulu HNL 17:25 → OGG 18:10WN 1933 10h 50m 100% 92%
SouthwestDetails → LAS 08:15 → HNL 11:35WN 2238 2h 25m Honolulu HNL 14:00 → OGG 14:50WN 1931 9h 35m 100% 90%
SouthwestDetails → LAS 09:15 → HNL 12:40WN 4109 3h 10m Honolulu HNL 15:50 → OGG 16:35WN 1932 10h 20m 100% 89%
SouthwestDetails → LAS 06:10 → SMF 07:45WN 4589 1h 15m Sacramento SMF 09:00 → OGG 11:20WN 479 8h 10m 99% 88%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 01:55 → HNL 05:16AS 817 2h 46m Honolulu HNL 08:02 → OGG 08:43AS 1046 9h 48m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → LAX 07:14UA 2039 3h 43m Los Angeles LAX 10:57 → OGG 13:43UA 765 10h 43m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:34 → SFO 15:16UA 1799 3h 54m San Francisco SFO 19:10 → OGG 21:44UA 1124 11h 10m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 3h 28m Denver DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736 12h 35m 100% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAS 11:30 → SFO 13:12UA 574 53m San Francisco SFO 14:05 → OGG 16:36UA 2623 8h 06m 67% 55%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 15:12 → SEA 17:57AS 698 1h 02m Seattle SEA 18:59 → OGG 22:07AS 202 9h 55m 65% 49%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 10:05 → HNL 13:29AS 807 55m Honolulu HNL 14:24 → OGG 15:08AS 1126 8h 03m 64% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON