Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2294 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 2294 LAS 07:45 → OMA 12:25 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 4587 LAS 21:05 → OMA 01:50 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2294 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:45	OMA 12:25	11%	2%	0.5%	88%
G4 73 Allegiant Flight history →	LAS 06:30	OMA 11:16	11%	4%	0.6%	86%
WN 4338 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 15:55	OMA 20:40	30%	10%	0.5%	59%
WN 4587 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 21:05	OMA 01:50	31%	9%	0.6%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON