Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 664 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 664 LAS 07:00 → ORD 12:48 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 706 LAS 14:25 → ORD 20:23 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 664 United Flight history →	LAS 07:00	ORD 12:48	9%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 2102 United Flight history →	LAS 23:30	ORD 05:11	13%	4%	0.6%	92%
AA 2258 American Flight history →	LAS 07:20	ORD 13:16	14%	4%	1.0%	89%
UA 726 United Flight history →	LAS 23:59	ORD 05:40	15%	4%	0.6%	89%
AA 2949 American Flight history →	LAS 00:59	ORD 06:45	15%	4%	1.0%	76%
AA 2020 American Flight history →	LAS 09:40	ORD 15:42	17%	5%	1.0%	90%
UA 1583 United Flight history →	LAS 10:25	ORD 16:21	18%	5%	0.6%	83%
AA 2040 American Flight history →	LAS 23:49	ORD 05:41	20%	7%	1.3%	67%
UA 1672 United Flight history →	LAS 19:03	ORD 00:50	23%	8%	0.7%	80%
UA 2320 United Flight history →	LAS 16:15	ORD 22:13	24%	8%	0.6%	78%
AA 2013 American Flight history →	LAS 15:51	ORD 22:00	27%	10%	1.2%	62%
AA 3039 American Flight history →	LAS 12:33	ORD 18:44	28%	9%	1.1%	76%
F9 2146 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 23:49	ORD 05:37	32%	14%	2.0%	70%
UA 706 United Flight history →	LAS 14:25	ORD 20:23	33%	8%	0.6%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON