Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AS 1572 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 1572 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 07:00	PAE 09:38	11%	3%	0.9%	82%
AS 366 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 19:50	PAE 22:30	25%	9%	1.8%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Everett on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LAS 07:00 → PDX 09:17AS 1629	1h 35m Portland	PDX 10:52 → PAE 11:53AS 2126 · flown by Horizon	4h 53m	90%	80%
Alaska Details →	LAS 14:38 → SAN 15:57AS 2282 · flown by Horizon	3h 03m San Diego	SAN 19:00 → PAE 22:00AS 2189 · flown by Horizon	7h 22m	98%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON