Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 1629 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–41%.

Safest bet that day AS 1629 LAS 07:00 → PDX 09:17 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 2307 LAS 19:55 → PDX 22:10 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 1629 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 07:00	PDX 09:17	11%	2%	0.7%	98%
WN 4132 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 09:20	PDX 11:40	12%	2%	0.5%	83%
AS 349 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 08:00	PDX 10:20	14%	3%	0.7%	72%
AS 1467 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 11:00	PDX 13:20	17%	3%	0.7%	90%
AS 756 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 14:08	PDX 16:29	26%	6%	0.7%	80%
AS 779 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 18:27	PDX 20:46	28%	9%	0.9%	82%worse than usual
F9 1105 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 14:30	PDX 16:54	32%	14%	1.6%	79%worse than usual
WN 199 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:15	PDX 00:35	36%	10%	0.6%	38%
WN 2126 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 14:40	PDX 16:55	36%	7%	0.7%	61%
WN 2307 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:55	PDX 22:10	41%	14%	0.9%	69%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON