Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 437 at 23:16 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 437 LAS 23:16 → PHL 07:05 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest F9 1602 LAS 22:13 → PHL 06:00 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 437 American Flight history →	LAS 23:16	PHL 07:05	14%	4%	0.9%	87%
AA 1121 American Flight history →	LAS 22:15	PHL 06:04	16%	6%	0.9%	88%
AA 779 American Flight history →	LAS 08:46	PHL 16:44	18%	4%	0.7%	81%
AA 3160 American Flight history →	LAS 11:44	PHL 19:46	25%	7%	0.7%	50%
F9 1602 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 22:13	PHL 06:00	37%	17%	1.6%	55%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 03m Denver	DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:12UA 1575	6h 42m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692	7h 04m	93%	76%
Southwest Details →	LAS 08:20 → MDW 13:55WN 2271	1h 25m Chicago	MDW 15:20 → PHL 18:20WN 4948	7h 00m	98%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON