Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2309 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 2309 LAS 06:20 → PHX 07:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 2314 LAS 19:35 → PHX 20:55 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2309 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 06:20	PHX 07:35	4%	1%	0.8%	92%
AA 1808 American Flight history →	LAS 06:45	PHX 08:00	9%	4%	0.8%	91%
WN 209 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:55	PHX 09:15	12%	2%	0.8%	94%
WN 2310 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 09:40	PHX 11:00	14%	3%	0.8%	85%
AA 2004 American Flight history →	LAS 09:56	PHX 11:08	19%	5%	0.8%	92%worse than usual
F9 4048 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 10:04	PHX 11:27	20%	9%	0.9%	88%
WN 4586 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 11:30	PHX 12:50	24%	4%	0.7%	77%
WN 2311 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 12:30	PHX 13:50	30%	6%	0.8%	86%worse than usual
WN 4138 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 13:45	PHX 15:05	33%	8%	0.8%	67%
AA 1022 American Flight history →	LAS 20:05	PHX 21:18	35%	14%	1.0%	40%
AA 3186 American Flight history →	LAS 16:34	PHX 17:48	35%	14%	1.0%	58%
WN 1033 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 17:30	PHX 18:55	35%	12%	0.9%	58%
AA 1466 American Flight history →	LAS 13:13	PHX 14:29	36%	12%	0.8%	63%
WN 1914 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 21:25	PHX 22:45	37%	13%	0.9%	58%
F9 1896 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 21:48	PHX 23:05	38%	16%	1.6%	75%worse than usual
WN 4461 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 18:35	PHX 19:50	40%	15%	1.0%	41%
WN 2314 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:35	PHX 20:55	41%	15%	1.1%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON