tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 13:36, is the safest bet: 57% chance of reaching Pittsburgh on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 27% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4491 Southwest Flight history → LAS 13:05 PIT 20:20 30% 9% 0.5% 31%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:59 → ORD 06:45AA 2949 3h 00m Chicago ORD 09:45 → PIT 12:31AA 4484 · flown by Republic 8h 32m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345 9h 19m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:59 → IAH 05:59UA 2840 1h 36m Houston IAH 07:35 → PIT 11:25UA 2607 7h 26m 97% 88%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → LAX 07:14UA 2039 1h 46m Los Angeles LAX 09:00 → PIT 16:51UA 2039 7h 51m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674 2h 26m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → PIT 16:30DL 1188 7h 30m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 33m Denver DEN 10:05 → PIT 15:16UA 1308 6h 46m 99% 86%
SouthwestDetails → LAS 06:10 → MDW 11:45WN 2270 1h 50m Chicago MDW 13:35 → PIT 16:00WN 2866 6h 50m 98% 85%
SouthwestDetails → LAS 05:05 → DEN 07:55WN 2223 2h 05m Denver DEN 10:00 → PIT 15:10WN 4012 7h 05m 100% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → LAS 13:50 → STL 19:05WN 3851 50m St Louis STL 19:55 → PIT 22:35WN 3972 5h 45m 52% 37%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 18:49 → SEA 21:34AS 1681 1h 03m Seattle SEA 22:37 → PIT 06:10 +1AS 77 8h 21m 53% 36%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:32 → MSP 14:39DL 2261 46m Minneapolis MSP 15:25 → PIT 18:40DL 3709 · flown by SkyWest 6h 08m 27% 23%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON