tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Raleigh/Durham on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → RDU 11:43DL 2052 8h 10m 100% 91%
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:59 → ORD 06:45AA 2949 2h 45m Chicago ORD 09:30 → RDU 12:49AA 4756 · flown by Republic 8h 50m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:59 → IAH 05:59UA 2840 2h 16m Houston IAH 08:15 → RDU 12:02UA 6148 · flown by Mesa 8h 03m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 17m Denver DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269 6h 46m 98% 86%
FrontierDetails → LAS 00:59 → DEN 03:48F9 2016 2h 15m Denver DEN 06:03 → RDU 11:31F9 2440 7h 32m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → LAS 05:50 → DTW 12:44DL 864 3h 18m Detroit DTW 16:02 → RDU 17:47DL 1407 8h 57m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAS 08:48 → IAD 16:24UA 1140 1h 06m Dulles IAD 17:30 → RDU 18:55UA 3624 · flown by Republic 7h 07m 94% 82%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550 7h 20m 96% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAS 08:46 → PHL 16:44AA 779 46m Philadelphia PHL 17:30 → RDU 19:11AA 5590 · flown by PSA 7h 25m 70% 47%
AmericanDetails → LAS 14:02 → DFW 19:03AA 777 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:04 → RDU 23:48AA 542 6h 46m 69% 44%
SouthwestDetails → LAS 13:50 → STL 19:05WN 3851 50m St Louis STL 19:55 → RDU 22:50WN 3810 6h 00m 52% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON