Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2319 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 2319 LAS 06:30 → RNO 07:50 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest F9 4241 LAS 18:30 → RNO 20:02 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2319 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 06:30	RNO 07:50	3%	1%	0.7%	98%
WN 3179 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:35	RNO 08:55	6%	1%	0.7%	84%
WN 1007 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 10:05	RNO 11:30	11%	2%	0.7%	92%
WN 4685 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 10:40	RNO 12:10	12%	3%	0.6%	84%
WN 5056 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 11:25	RNO 12:55	16%	3%	0.6%	69%
WN 652 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 12:35	RNO 14:05	20%	5%	0.7%	68%
F9 4243 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 10:43	RNO 12:09	22%	8%	1.0%	67%
WN 1221 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 13:15	RNO 14:45	23%	5%	0.7%	65%
WN 2104 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 14:00	RNO 15:30	27%	6%	0.9%	70%
WN 4647 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 15:10	RNO 16:35	27%	7%	0.7%	64%
WN 287 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:15	RNO 23:40	30%	10%	0.6%	46%
WN 2477 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 20:45	RNO 22:15	31%	12%	0.7%	64%
WN 2012 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 17:45	RNO 19:10	31%	10%	0.9%	50%
WN 792 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:10	RNO 20:35	34%	12%	1.0%	72%
F9 4241 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 18:30	RNO 20:02	34%	15%	1.6%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON