Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4342 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 44–55%.

Safest bet that day WN 4342 LAS 06:05 → SAN 07:15 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 2330 LAS 18:55 → SAN 20:10 · 55% chance 15+ min late · usually 28% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4342 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 06:05	SAN 07:15	8%	2%	0.8%	88%
WN 2325 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:10	SAN 08:20	16%	3%	0.8%	76%
WN 2121 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 08:40	SAN 09:55	22%	4%	0.8%	65%
WN 347 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 10:00	SAN 11:15	35%	7%	0.8%	58%
DL 3741 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 12:57	SAN 14:13	40%	14%	1.0%	79%worse than usual
WN 2272 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 11:40	SAN 12:55	41%	10%	0.8%	35%
WN 2259 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 12:30	SAN 13:45	42%	12%	1.0%	38%
WN 2328 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 12:55	SAN 14:10	44%	13%	1.0%	21%
WN 3620 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 16:00	SAN 17:15	44%	14%	1.0%	43%
WN 1227 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 21:30	SAN 22:45	45%	13%	0.8%	40%
WN 1771 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 13:50	SAN 15:05	45%	12%	0.9%	50%
WN 2871 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:15	SAN 23:30	47%	14%	0.8%	29%
WN 1288 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 18:05	SAN 19:20	54%	17%	1.0%	10%
F9 1469 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 18:50	SAN 20:06	54%	18%	1.4%	67%worse than usual
WN 2330 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 18:55	SAN 20:10	55%	18%	1.0%	28%
AS 2252 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 06:50	SAN 08:04	24%	4%	3.8%	76%
AS 2416 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 11:11	SAN 12:29	35%	4%	4.7%	65%
AS 2253 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 07:59	SAN 09:15	56%	8%	2.0%	44%
AS 2282 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 14:38	SAN 15:57	68%	30%	2.2%	32%
AS 2251 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 18:19	SAN 19:36	76%	33%	9.8%	24%
AS 2219 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 19:21	SAN 20:39	96%	59%	10.0%	4%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON