Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2333 at 10:20 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 2333 LAS 10:20 → SAT 15:00 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 4526 LAS 19:25 → SAT 00:10 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2333 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 10:20	SAT 15:00	18%	3%	0.5%	86%
WN 2334 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 15:15	SAT 19:55	29%	9%	0.6%	36%
F9 3418 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 15:43	SAT 20:37	31%	13%	0.9%	84%worse than usual
WN 2335 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 20:55	SAT 01:40	32%	10%	0.6%	42%
WN 4526 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:25	SAT 00:10	35%	10%	0.8%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON