Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2336 at 09:20 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 2336 LAS 09:20 → SBA 10:40 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 373 LAS 22:10 → SBA 23:35 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2336 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 09:20	SBA 10:40	12%	3%	1.1%	91%
WN 2002 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 16:00	SBA 17:25	26%	11%	1.5%	78%
WN 373 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:10	SBA 23:35	32%	10%	1.6%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON