tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Midway, leaving 06:10, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Louisville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2339 Southwest Flight history → LAS 17:40 SDF 00:30 38% 11% 0.9% 36%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481 8h 18m 100% 91%
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:59 → DFW 05:44AA 2921 3h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:31 → SDF 12:48AA 3791 · flown by Envoy 8h 49m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 13m Denver DEN 09:45 → SDF 14:28UA 1479 5h 58m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:59 → DTW 16:58DL 470 2h 47m Detroit DTW 19:45 → SDF 21:12DL 5832 · flown by Republic 8h 13m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → LAS 06:10 → MDW 11:45WN 2270 1h 00m Chicago MDW 12:45 → SDF 14:55WN 4473 5h 45m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:59 → IAH 05:59UA 2840 2h 31m Houston IAH 08:30 → SDF 11:54UA 3990 · flown by Mesa 7h 55m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:59 → ORD 06:45AA 2949 1h 15m Chicago ORD 08:00 → SDF 10:36AA 4704 · flown by Republic 6h 37m 92% 84%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195 6h 42m 96% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAS 11:44 → PHL 19:46AA 3160 52m Philadelphia PHL 20:38 → SDF 23:03AA 4466 · flown by Republic 8h 19m 72% 62%
UnitedDetails → LAS 14:25 → ORD 20:23UA 706 1h 02m Chicago ORD 21:25 → SDF 23:59UA 3659 · flown by Republic 6h 34m 69% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON