Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2844 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–49%.

Safest bet that day DL 2844 LAS 06:10 → SEA 08:45 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 1681 LAS 18:49 → SEA 21:34 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2844 Delta Flight history →	LAS 06:10	SEA 08:45	7%	2%	0.7%	96%
AS 701 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 06:02	SEA 08:45	9%	2%	0.7%	96%
DL 2922 Delta Flight history →	LAS 11:09	SEA 14:00	14%	4%	0.7%	92%
AS 629 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 10:28	SEA 13:14	20%	4%	0.7%	89%
DL 2905 Delta Flight history →	LAS 13:31	SEA 16:16	21%	5%	0.8%	89%worse than usual
AS 785 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 11:30	SEA 14:14	25%	5%	0.7%	85%worse than usual
F9 2407 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 07:45	SEA 10:39	26%	6%	0.9%	80%
DL 2880 Delta Flight history →	LAS 14:40	SEA 17:21	27%	6%	0.8%	84%worse than usual
WN 739 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:40	SEA 10:25	27%	4%	0.6%	75%
AS 479 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 07:22	SEA 10:05	31%	4%	0.7%	84%worse than usual
AS 676 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 12:16	SEA 15:00	33%	6%	0.8%	77%
AS 698 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 15:12	SEA 17:57	35%	10%	0.8%	69%
DL 2956 Delta Flight history →	LAS 19:06	SEA 21:49	39%	9%	1.0%	72%worse than usual
WN 963 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:10	SEA 00:55	43%	14%	0.7%	46%
WN 1192 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 17:25	SEA 20:10	46%	16%	0.7%	54%
AS 1681 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 18:49	SEA 21:34	49%	11%	1.0%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON