Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 643 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–46%.

Safest bet that day UA 643 LAS 06:00 → SFO 07:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 4397 LAS 20:05 → SFO 21:35 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 17% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 643 United Flight history →	LAS 06:00	SFO 07:35	4%	2%	0.6%	98%
UA 2356 United Flight history →	LAS 07:15	SFO 08:52	24%	7%	0.6%	63%
UA 2841 United Flight history →	LAS 17:13	SFO 18:55	25%	11%	0.6%	65%
UA 574 United Flight history →	LAS 11:30	SFO 13:12	26%	10%	0.6%	69%
UA 2615 United Flight history →	LAS 21:15	SFO 22:57	26%	11%	0.6%	23%
F9 3019 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 07:00	SFO 08:48	27%	10%	1.1%	76%
UA 2478 United Flight history →	LAS 14:52	SFO 16:34	28%	11%	0.6%	51%
UA 1603 United Flight history →	LAS 18:20	SFO 20:02	31%	13%	0.6%	66%
UA 1799 United Flight history →	LAS 13:34	SFO 15:16	31%	11%	0.6%	57%
AS 613 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 22:05	SFO 23:42	32%	12%	0.8%	76%
WN 2934 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:35	SFO 09:10	33%	13%	0.6%	9%
UA 1267 United Flight history →	LAS 19:52	SFO 21:34	34%	13%	0.7%	40%
AS 634 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 18:03	SFO 19:41	34%	15%	0.9%	58%
WN 2784 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:55	SFO 00:35	38%	15%	0.6%	40%
F9 4401 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 14:48	SFO 16:41	39%	20%	1.3%	52%
WN 2343 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 12:20	SFO 13:55	39%	15%	0.7%	8%
AS 570 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 10:02	SFO 11:43	39%	13%	0.7%	58%
F9 3801 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 18:00	SFO 19:52	40%	20%	1.6%	65%
WN 4397 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 20:05	SFO 21:35	46%	19%	0.6%	17%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON