Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, G4 21 at 07:30, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


G4 21 Allegiant	LAS 07:30	SGF 12:31	9%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Springfield on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Springfield is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LAS 00:59 → DFW 05:44AA 2921	1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:23 → SGF 08:51AA 3801 · flown by Envoy	5h 52m	96%	88%
American Details →	LAS 05:02 → DFW 09:55AA 1780	3h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:40 → SGF 15:07AA 3795 · flown by Envoy	8h 05m	99%	87%
American Details →	LAS 00:59 → ORD 06:45AA 2949	1h 31m Chicago	ORD 08:16 → SGF 10:03AA 3800 · flown by Envoy	7h 04m	95%	86%
United Details →	LAS 06:00 → IAH 11:11UA 2608	1h 14m Houston	IAH 12:25 → SGF 14:15UA 4569 · flown by GoJet	6h 15m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → SGF 10:52DL 4707 · flown by Endeavor	8h 19m	100%	84%
American Details →	LAS 08:00 → DFW 12:53AA 1241	3h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:33 → SGF 18:04AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	8h 04m	98%	84%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 22m Denver	DEN 09:54 → SGF 12:52UA 5481 · flown by SkyWest	5h 22m	98%	84%
American Details →	LAS 10:11 → DFW 15:08AA 1584	3h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:01 → SGF 20:31AA 3671 · flown by Envoy	8h 20m	97%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LAS 12:47 → DFW 17:49AA 3285	1h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:01 → SGF 20:31AA 3671 · flown by Envoy	5h 44m	73%	62%
United Details →	LAS 14:25 → ORD 20:23UA 706	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → SGF 23:27UA 4451 · flown by GoJet	7h 02m	74%	57%
Delta Details →	LAS 13:12 → ATL 20:24DL 466	52m Atlanta	ATL 21:16 → SGF 22:10DL 1105	6h 58m	69%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON