Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2346 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 2346 LAS 05:40 → SJC 07:00 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 3865 LAS 19:35 → SJC 21:05 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2346 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 05:40	SJC 07:00	3%	1%	0.6%	100%
WN 1160 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:10	SJC 08:40	5%	1%	0.6%	100%
WN 439 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 09:55	SJC 11:30	8%	2%	0.6%	80%
WN 1242 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 12:10	SJC 13:45	18%	4%	0.7%	90%
F9 4103 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 11:39	SJC 13:17	20%	9%	0.8%	78%
WN 4223 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 12:45	SJC 14:20	21%	6%	0.7%	85%
WN 2350 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 14:50	SJC 16:20	26%	6%	0.8%	67%
WN 5054 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 17:10	SJC 18:40	27%	9%	0.8%	60%
WN 704 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 21:00	SJC 22:35	28%	9%	0.6%	58%
WN 660 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 21:55	SJC 23:30	29%	10%	0.6%	60%
WN 2352 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 20:10	SJC 21:40	31%	10%	0.6%	70%
WN 3865 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:35	SJC 21:05	34%	11%	0.9%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON