Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2674 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–36%.

Safest bet that day DL 2674 LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 1454 LAS 22:55 → SLC 01:20 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 27% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2674 Delta Flight history →	LAS 06:00	SLC 08:19	5%	2%	0.6%	96%
WN 2957 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:35	SLC 10:00	7%	2%	0.5%	91%
F9 3016 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 07:00	SLC 09:26	10%	5%	0.8%	93%
DL 1698 Delta Flight history →	LAS 10:00	SLC 12:29	13%	4%	0.6%	89%
DL 1659 Delta Flight history →	LAS 13:15	SLC 15:44	18%	6%	0.6%	84%
DL 1672 Delta Flight history →	LAS 17:00	SLC 19:25	23%	8%	0.7%	77%
WN 3310 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 13:40	SLC 16:10	27%	6%	0.5%	70%
DL 1590 Delta Flight history →	LAS 19:55	SLC 22:15	33%	9%	0.8%	77%worse than usual
WN 4225 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 20:25	SLC 22:55	33%	13%	0.6%	42%
WN 1454 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:55	SLC 01:20	36%	11%	0.6%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON