Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4589 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 4589 LAS 06:10 → SMF 07:45 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 4032 LAS 18:30 → SMF 20:05 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4589 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 06:10	SMF 07:45	3%	1%	0.6%	97%
WN 2359 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:15	SMF 08:45	6%	2%	0.6%	98%
WN 860 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 08:35	SMF 10:05	8%	2%	0.6%	94%
WN 1122 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 09:35	SMF 11:10	11%	3%	0.6%	92%
WN 4532 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 11:25	SMF 13:00	21%	5%	0.6%	88%
WN 4533 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 12:35	SMF 14:10	29%	7%	0.6%	71%
WN 1308 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 15:50	SMF 17:25	32%	11%	0.7%	58%
WN 4226 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:40	SMF 00:20	33%	11%	0.6%	42%
WN 2362 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 21:10	SMF 22:45	35%	12%	0.6%	51%
F9 2069 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 17:10	SMF 18:49	37%	18%	1.4%	79%worse than usual
WN 978 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:20	SMF 21:00	38%	14%	0.8%	35%
WN 4032 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 18:30	SMF 20:05	39%	14%	0.8%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON