Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3715 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 3715 LAS 07:05 → SNA 08:10 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 2366 LAS 18:05 → SNA 19:10 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3715 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:05	SNA 08:10	8%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 4078 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 08:45	SNA 10:02	12%	6%	0.7%	88%
WN 187 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 09:10	SNA 10:20	16%	3%	0.6%	84%
WN 2092 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 10:30	SNA 11:40	19%	5%	0.6%	81%
DL 4179 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 18:01	SNA 19:15	22%	8%	1.0%	89%worse than usual
F9 1699 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 11:16	SNA 12:31	26%	10%	0.8%	87%worse than usual
WN 1590 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 21:15	SNA 22:25	27%	6%	0.7%	82%
WN 4266 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 20:20	SNA 21:30	30%	8%	0.7%	52%
WN 342 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 16:45	SNA 17:50	37%	9%	0.8%	60%
WN 170 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 14:30	SNA 15:40	38%	10%	0.8%	44%
WN 2366 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 18:05	SNA 19:10	41%	11%	0.9%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON