Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2368 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 2368 LAS 06:45 → STL 11:55 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 4539 LAS 19:00 → STL 00:15 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2368 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 06:45	STL 11:55	5%	1%	0.5%	95%
WN 2369 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 11:15	STL 16:30	26%	5%	0.5%	90%worse than usual
F9 3108 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 12:50	STL 18:15	31%	11%	0.9%	81%worse than usual
WN 3851 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 13:50	STL 19:05	33%	8%	0.5%	56%
WN 2371 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 20:45	STL 01:55	35%	10%	0.6%	58%
WN 4539 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:00	STL 00:15	38%	11%	0.8%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON