Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2407 at 14:55, with a 32% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2407 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 14:55	STS 16:35	32%	9%	0.8%	27%
AS 2458 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 15:24	STS 17:16	20%	2%	3.8%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Rosa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LAS 07:00 → PDX 09:17AS 1629	1h 28m Portland	PDX 10:45 → STS 12:26AS 2330 · flown by Horizon	5h 26m	90%	82%
Southwest Details →	LAS 06:05 → SAN 07:15WN 4342	1h 20m San Diego	SAN 08:35 → STS 10:20WN 4773	4h 15m	95%	81%
American Details →	LAS 06:45 → PHX 08:00AA 1808	2h 17m Phoenix	PHX 10:17 → STS 12:30AA 3514 · flown by Envoy	5h 45m	97%	78%
Alaska Details →	LAS 11:00 → PDX 13:20AS 1467	1h 10m Portland	PDX 14:30 → STS 16:15AS 3483 · flown by SkyWest	5h 15m	92%	78%
Alaska Details →	LAS 06:02 → SEA 08:45AS 701	1h 09m Seattle	SEA 09:54 → STS 11:58AS 1321	5h 56m	94%	77%
American Details →	LAS 09:56 → PHX 11:08AA 2004	2h 27m Phoenix	PHX 13:35 → STS 15:42AA 6459 · flown by SkyWest	5h 46m	96%	74%
Southwest Details →	LAS 09:40 → BUR 10:55WN 2198	2h 55m Burbank	BUR 13:50 → STS 15:20WN 424	5h 40m	100%	74%
Alaska Details →	LAS 15:12 → SEA 17:57AS 698	2h 47m Seattle	SEA 20:44 → STS 22:51AS 3410 · flown by SkyWest	7h 39m	90%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LAS 18:27 → PDX 20:46AS 779	59m Portland	PDX 21:45 → STS 23:30AS 3115 · flown by SkyWest	5h 03m	71%	61%
Southwest Details →	LAS 18:55 → SAN 20:10WN 2330	1h 35m San Diego	SAN 21:45 → STS 23:35WN 4191	4h 40m	66%	49%
Alaska Details →	LAS 18:19 → SAN 19:36AS 2251 · flown by Horizon	1h 27m San Diego	SAN 21:03 → STS 22:58AS 3302 · flown by SkyWest	4h 39m	60%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON