Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2372 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 42–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 2372 LAS 09:00 → TPA 16:30 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest WN 4494 LAS 17:45 → TPA 01:20 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2372 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 09:00	TPA 16:30	22%	4%	17.1%	79%
WN 3095 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 12:55	TPA 20:30	38%	9%	14.9%	61%
F9 1258 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 22:18	TPA 05:54	42%	16%	8.3%	63%
WN 4494 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 17:45	TPA 01:20	43%	11%	7.0%	71%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 08:38 → TPA 10:07DL 1227	6h 34m	94%	70%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 08m Denver	DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14UA 1010	6h 44m	97%	70%
American Details →	LAS 00:59 → DFW 05:44AA 2921	1h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:10 → TPA 10:41AA 2814	6h 42m	93%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON