Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 519 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 519 LAS 07:40 → TUS 09:00 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 2414 LAS 17:00 → TUS 18:25 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 519 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:40	TUS 09:00	8%	1%	0.6%	91%
WN 354 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:00	TUS 23:30	31%	13%	0.6%	56%
WN 2414 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 17:00	TUS 18:25	35%	12%	0.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON