Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4943 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 4943 LAX 06:55 → ABQ 09:50 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest WN 1916 LAX 22:00 → ABQ 00:55 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4943 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 06:55	ABQ 09:50	5%	2%	0.5%	74%
DL 4108 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:25	ABQ 11:32	10%	4%	0.5%	92%
AA 4887 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:28	ABQ 11:30	12%	4%	0.5%	90%
DL 4091 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 15:00	ABQ 18:07	15%	6%	0.5%	85%
DL 4098 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 20:47	ABQ 23:48	16%	5%	0.6%	90%
AA 6515 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 20:08	ABQ 23:09	19%	6%	0.6%	81%
WN 1916 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 22:00	ABQ 00:55	30%	9%	0.5%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON