Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 5384 at 12:45, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 5384 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 12:45	ACV 14:48	17%	11%	1.1%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Arcata/Eureka on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	LAX 17:10 → SFO 18:38UA 233	3h 57m San Francisco	SFO 22:35 → ACV 23:59UA 4695 · flown by SkyWest	6h 49m	99%	72%
United Details →	LAX 16:14 → SFO 17:42UA 2019	3h 40m San Francisco	SFO 21:22 → ACV 22:50UA 5626 · flown by SkyWest	6h 36m	99%	71%
United Details →	LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703	51m Denver	DEN 11:20 → ACV 13:24UA 5506 · flown by SkyWest	6h 24m	87%	71%
Alaska Details →	LAX 07:00 → SEA 09:49AS 748	2h 37m Seattle	SEA 12:26 → ACV 14:13AS 3220 · flown by SkyWest	7h 13m	99%	70%
United Details →	LAX 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 2647	2h 40m San Francisco	SFO 10:15 → ACV 11:42UA 4708 · flown by SkyWest	5h 42m	99%	65%
United Details →	LAX 13:25 → SFO 14:53UA 372	1h 38m San Francisco	SFO 16:31 → ACV 18:03UA 5480 · flown by SkyWest	4h 38m	89%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	LAX 20:10 → SFO 21:38UA 1195	57m San Francisco	SFO 22:35 → ACV 23:59UA 4695 · flown by SkyWest	3h 49m	67%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON