tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Portland, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 53 Alaska Flight history → LAX 07:33 ANC 11:57 16% 3% 0.7% 86%
AS 1899 Alaska Flight history → LAX 19:31 ANC 23:55 20% 4% 0.7% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:30 → MSP 06:07DL 2084 2h 43m Minneapolis MSP 08:50 → ANC 11:34DL 555 12h 04m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:13 → ORD 06:32UA 729 2h 32m Chicago ORD 09:04 → ANC 12:56UA 840 13h 43m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:05 → IAH 12:34UA 1397 1h 46m Houston IAH 14:20 → ANC 18:41UA 2369 12h 36m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010 2h 58m Denver DEN 11:20 → ANC 14:53UA 280 10h 53m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAX 13:25 → SFO 14:53UA 372 3h 54m San Francisco SFO 18:47 → ANC 22:40UA 1594 10h 15m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAX 08:47 → DEN 12:13UA 1912 3h 22m Denver DEN 15:35 → ANC 19:12UA 1592 11h 25m 98% 78%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 07:00 → PDX 09:21AS 668 1h 09m Portland PDX 10:30 → ANC 13:22AS 775 7h 22m 93% 76%
UnitedDetails → LAX 08:15 → ORD 14:35UA 1946 1h 35m Chicago ORD 16:10 → ANC 19:54UA 841 12h 39m 96% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LAX 11:23 → PDX 13:44AS 1355 46m Portland PDX 14:30 → ANC 17:16AS 1565 6h 53m 66% 54%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 19:09 → SEA 21:58AS 1368 1h 01m Seattle SEA 22:59 → ANC 01:37 +1AS 669 7h 28m 63% 41%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 10:00 → SEA 12:48AS 798 50m Seattle SEA 13:38 → ANC 16:20AS 659 7h 20m 59% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON