Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 16–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3704 LAX 17:12 → ASE 20:25 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest UA 4700 LAX 10:17 → ASE 13:38 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3704 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 17:12	ASE 20:25	16%	9%	2.1%	84%
AA 6387 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 14:07	ASE 17:23	16%	9%	0.9%	66%
UA 5764 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 16:20	ASE 19:31	17%	9%	2.0%	80%
UA 4700 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 10:17	ASE 13:38	20%	10%	1.1%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON