Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 390 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–40%.

Safest bet that day DL 390 LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 3216 LAX 23:34 → ATL 07:20 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 390 Delta Flight history →	LAX 06:00	ATL 13:35	9%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 515 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:00	ATL 14:35	12%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 782 Delta Flight history →	LAX 08:05	ATL 15:41	17%	4%	0.6%	82%
DL 528 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:00	ATL 18:37	17%	4%	0.6%	86%
DL 446 Delta Flight history →	LAX 12:00	ATL 19:39	18%	5%	0.6%	85%
DL 715 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:15	ATL 21:59	19%	5%	0.6%	82%
DL 471 Delta Flight history →	LAX 16:40	ATL 00:30	19%	5%	0.6%	85%
DL 395 Delta Flight history →	LAX 13:15	ATL 20:56	21%	5%	0.6%	80%
DL 899 Delta Flight history →	LAX 22:40	ATL 06:10	22%	4%	0.6%	79%
DL 783 Delta Flight history →	LAX 21:24	ATL 05:00	22%	4%	0.6%	82%
DL 320 Delta Flight history →	LAX 23:59	ATL 07:33	25%	4%	0.6%	74%
AA 753 American Flight history →	LAX 09:45	ATL 17:15	29%	10%	0.6%	61%
DL 327 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:50	ATL 16:50	31%	4%	0.6%	72%
F9 3216 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 23:34	ATL 07:20	40%	14%	0.9%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON