Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2379 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 2379 LAX 06:35 → AUS 11:30 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 255 LAX 16:10 → AUS 21:10 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2379 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 06:35	AUS 11:30	9%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 946 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:35	AUS 12:38	12%	3%	0.7%	88%
UA 5445 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:09	AUS 13:29	16%	5%	0.5%	90%
UA 5456 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:45	AUS 23:59	17%	8%	0.6%	92%
AA 4979 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 16:31	AUS 21:44	18%	8%	0.5%	81%
AA 6409 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:14	AUS 14:30	19%	7%	0.6%	86%
DL 986 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:05	AUS 15:20	21%	5%	0.7%	87%
WN 2251 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 08:55	AUS 13:50	23%	4%	0.6%	64%
DL 622 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:55	AUS 20:58	23%	8%	0.7%	78%
DL 692 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:32	AUS 23:29	28%	8%	0.7%	73%
AA 2118 American Flight history →	LAX 18:52	AUS 23:55	34%	12%	0.6%	75%
WN 255 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 16:10	AUS 21:10	40%	13%	0.5%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON