Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 639 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 639 LAX 06:40 → BOS 15:15 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest B6 488 LAX 22:20 → BOS 07:00 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 639 Delta Flight history →	LAX 06:40	BOS 15:15	7%	3%	0.7%	83%
B6 888 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 06:00	BOS 14:37	10%	4%	0.7%	88%
AA 12 American Flight history →	LAX 08:00	BOS 16:38	14%	6%	0.7%	78%
UA 2210 United Flight history →	LAX 23:59	BOS 08:40	15%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 1783 United Flight history →	LAX 08:35	BOS 17:20	15%	4%	0.6%	83%
B6 288 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 08:00	BOS 16:40	15%	6%	0.7%	70%
DL 507 Delta Flight history →	LAX 21:00	BOS 05:30	16%	5%	0.7%	85%
DL 2166 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:20	BOS 23:51	19%	7%	0.6%	78%
AA 2453 American Flight history →	LAX 23:59	BOS 08:35	19%	4%	0.7%	81%
AA 1805 American Flight history →	LAX 15:05	BOS 23:43	20%	9%	0.7%	65%
DL 437 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:45	BOS 19:20	22%	8%	0.7%	71%
B6 188 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 13:55	BOS 22:36	23%	10%	0.7%	74%
B6 988 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 09:59	BOS 18:42	24%	8%	0.7%	81%
AA 1691 American Flight history →	LAX 10:00	BOS 18:40	24%	10%	0.7%	53%
B6 1388 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 10:59	BOS 19:42	26%	11%	0.7%	68%
B6 488 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 22:20	BOS 07:00	27%	7%	0.8%	72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 18:45 → DEN 22:15UA 2610	1h 44m Denver	DEN 23:59 → BOS 05:58 +1UA 2656	8h 13m	96%	86%
United Details →	LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010	1h 18m Denver	DEN 09:40 → BOS 15:44UA 1232	7h 44m	100%	84%
United Details →	LAX 00:13 → ORD 06:32UA 729	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 07:33 → BOS 11:05UA 1076	7h 52m	91%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON