tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Midway, leaving 05:10, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Buffalo on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 492 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 23:35 BUF 07:29 37% 17% 2.0% 53%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:10 → ORD 11:27UA 580 2h 28m Chicago ORD 13:55 → BUF 16:41UA 2226 8h 31m 100% 86%
SouthwestDetails → LAX 05:10 → MDW 11:10WN 4398 1h 50m Chicago MDW 13:00 → BUF 15:30WN 1655 7h 20m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 3h 30m Minneapolis MSP 15:22 → BUF 18:24DL 1749 9h 09m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:50 → DTW 19:14DL 802 3h 36m Detroit DTW 22:50 → BUF 23:58DL 978 9h 08m 99% 81%
SouthwestDetails → LAX 05:05 → BNA 11:10WN 4492 2h 05m Nashville BNA 13:15 → BUF 16:00WN 4728 7h 55m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → LAX 08:00 → BOS 16:38AA 12 3h 27m Boston BOS 20:05 → BUF 21:55AA 4616 · flown by Republic 10h 55m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → LAX 07:15 → DTW 14:40DL 733 3h 12m Detroit DTW 17:52 → BUF 19:09DL 3637 · flown by SkyWest 8h 54m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 16:33 → BUF 18:41DL 2050 9h 41m 98% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LAX 08:05 → ATL 15:41DL 782 52m Atlanta ATL 16:33 → BUF 18:41DL 2050 7h 36m 73% 58%
DeltaDetails → LAX 13:15 → ATL 20:56DL 395 56m Atlanta ATL 21:52 → BUF 23:59DL 2334 7h 44m 75% 58%
DeltaDetails → LAX 13:15 → JFK 21:53DL 939 47m New York JFK 22:40 → BUF 00:38 +1DL 5264 · flown by Endeavor 8h 23m 67% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON