Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2383 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 2383 LAX 05:00 → BWI 13:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest WN 2384 LAX 13:35 → BWI 21:35 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2383 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 05:00	BWI 13:00	7%	1%	0.6%	76%
UA 1605 United Flight history →	LAX 23:05	BWI 07:14	11%	4%	0.6%	91%
UA 1093 United Flight history →	LAX 09:40	BWI 17:50	14%	4%	0.6%	90%
WN 2385 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 21:50	BWI 05:45	30%	7%	0.6%	71%
WN 2384 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 13:35	BWI 21:35	32%	9%	0.6%	54%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010	1h 24m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	7h 17m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	LAX 00:30 → MSP 06:07DL 2084	1h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → BWI 10:42DL 2357	7h 12m	91%	84%
Southwest Details →	LAX 05:05 → BNA 11:10WN 4492	55m Nashville	BNA 12:05 → BWI 14:55WN 1345	6h 50m	91%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON