tailodds FORECAST
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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 2212 at 12:50, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2212 United Flight history → LAX 12:50 BZN 16:24 12% 5% 0.6% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → LAX 05:20 → LAS 06:35WN 2403 55m Las Vegas LAS 07:30 → BZN 10:35WN 392 4h 15m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → LAX 07:15 → SLC 10:10DL 1318 3h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 13:50 → BZN 15:13DL 3906 · flown by SkyWest 6h 58m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:41 → SLC 14:30DL 1194 2h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 6h 03m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906 1h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 09:55 → BZN 11:17DL 1971 4h 42m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 1h 25m Minneapolis MSP 13:17 → BZN 14:47DL 2946 7h 32m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010 3h 10m Denver DEN 11:32 → BZN 13:20UA 1248 7h 20m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311 3h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 6h 18m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → LAX 05:55 → DEN 09:20WN 2943 3h 10m Denver DEN 12:30 → BZN 14:10WN 4219 7h 15m 100% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON