Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1084 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 1084 LAX 09:00 → CLE 16:38 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 650 LAX 10:00 → CLE 17:53 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1084 United Flight history →	LAX 09:00	CLE 16:38	9%	4%	0.5%	91%
UA 2641 United Flight history →	LAX 22:33	CLE 06:08	11%	4%	0.5%	90%
AA 650 American Flight history →	LAX 10:00	CLE 17:53	20%	7%	0.7%	87%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010	1h 18m Denver	DEN 09:40 → CLE 14:36UA 619	6h 36m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	LAX 05:10 → MDW 11:10WN 4398	1h 05m Chicago	MDW 12:15 → CLE 14:25WN 1813	6h 15m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	LAX 00:30 → MSP 06:07DL 2084	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 07:08 → CLE 09:58DL 2847	6h 28m	90%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON