Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1208 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 1208 LAX 06:00 → CLT 13:59 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 99% on time Riskiest AA 1988 LAX 13:58 → CLT 21:55 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1208 American Flight history →	LAX 06:00	CLT 13:59	9%	3%	0.7%	99%
AA 1952 American Flight history →	LAX 07:12	CLT 15:05	13%	3%	0.7%	94%
AA 2199 American Flight history →	LAX 21:41	CLT 05:24	19%	5%	0.7%	86%
AA 1159 American Flight history →	LAX 11:00	CLT 19:00	23%	7%	0.7%	72%
AA 2570 American Flight history →	LAX 09:24	CLT 17:26	23%	6%	0.6%	77%
AA 3035 American Flight history →	LAX 22:35	CLT 06:19	23%	4%	0.7%	77%
AA 1988 American Flight history →	LAX 13:58	CLT 21:55	26%	8%	0.7%	72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 00:30 → MSP 06:07DL 2084	48m Minneapolis	MSP 06:55 → CLT 10:24DL 1827	6h 54m	84%	77%
Delta Details →	LAX 12:00 → ATL 19:39DL 446	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 20:40 → CLT 21:57DL 3139	6h 57m	83%	63%
Southwest Details →	LAX 10:45 → DAL 15:45WN 1263	1h 20m Dallas	DAL 17:05 → CLT 20:35WN 4299	6h 50m	86%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON