tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Columbus on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1692 United Flight history → LAX 10:45 CMH 18:15 18% 6% 0.5% 79%
AA 1686 American Flight history → LAX 09:21 CMH 17:01 18% 7% 0.7% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:50 → DTW 19:14DL 802 3h 36m Detroit DTW 22:50 → CMH 23:56DL 5634 · flown by Republic 9h 06m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → LAX 09:45 → DTW 17:08DL 494 2h 46m Detroit DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic 8h 17m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010 1h 13m Denver DEN 09:35 → CMH 14:28UA 480 6h 28m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:10 → ORD 11:27UA 580 1h 21m Chicago ORD 12:48 → CMH 15:28UA 3554 · flown by Republic 7h 18m 96% 88%
AmericanDetails → LAX 10:16 → PHL 18:41AA 3164 3h 09m Philadelphia PHL 21:50 → CMH 23:41AA 4361 · flown by Republic 10h 25m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:45 → ORD 17:04UA 2113 2h 41m Chicago ORD 19:45 → CMH 22:24UA 3614 · flown by Republic 8h 39m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:00 → ORD 13:14UA 1941 3h 20m Chicago ORD 16:34 → CMH 19:13UA 3570 · flown by Republic 9h 13m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAX 08:15 → ORD 14:35UA 1946 3h 10m Chicago ORD 17:45 → CMH 20:24UA 3674 · flown by Republic 9h 09m 99% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAX 14:26 → ORD 20:40UA 2487 50m Chicago ORD 21:30 → CMH 23:59UA 1492 6h 33m 65% 53%
SouthwestDetails → LAX 13:35 → BWI 21:35WN 2384 50m Baltimore BWI 22:25 → CMH 23:55WN 4157 7h 20m 53% 38%
AmericanDetails → LAX 10:40 → MIA 19:00AA 3016 50m Miami MIA 19:50 → CMH 22:39AA 3660 · flown by Envoy 8h 59m 52% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON