tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 09:55, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Hebron on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 458 Delta Flight history → LAX 22:45 CVG 05:59 18% 4% 0.8% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010 1h 18m Denver DEN 09:40 → CVG 14:28UA 1978 6h 28m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:39 → IAD 18:48UA 2667 3h 29m Dulles IAD 22:17 → CVG 23:59UA 3521 · flown by Republic 10h 20m 99% 86%
SouthwestDetails → LAX 05:10 → MDW 11:10WN 4398 1h 50m Chicago MDW 13:00 → CVG 15:10WN 1247 7h 00m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906 1h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 09:40 → CVG 15:03DL 2273 6h 28m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:30 → MSP 06:07DL 2084 1h 07m Minneapolis MSP 07:14 → CVG 10:03DL 954 6h 33m 93% 85%
DeltaDetails → LAX 07:15 → SLC 10:10DL 1318 3h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 13:40 → CVG 19:01DL 2149 8h 46m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491 1h 18m Houston IAH 07:30 → CVG 10:59UA 6312 · flown by Mesa 7h 08m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → LAX 11:40 → ORD 18:12AA 1050 3h 48m Chicago ORD 22:00 → CVG 00:30 +1AA 4776 · flown by Republic 9h 50m 97% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LAX 13:15 → ATL 20:56DL 395 52m Atlanta ATL 21:48 → CVG 23:15DL 1858 7h 00m 69% 56%
AmericanDetails → LAX 10:16 → PHL 18:41AA 3164 59m Philadelphia PHL 19:40 → CVG 21:53AA 5583 · flown by PSA 8h 37m 73% 54%
AmericanDetails → LAX 13:53 → DFW 19:14AA 2041 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:07 → CVG 23:22AA 799 6h 29m 72% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON