Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4128 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 4128 LAX 05:00 → DAL 10:05 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest WN 2388 LAX 17:50 → DAL 22:55 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 15% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4128 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 05:00	DAL 10:05	6%	1%	0.6%	80%
WN 1362 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 07:50	DAL 12:50	15%	2%	0.6%	44%
WN 1263 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 10:45	DAL 15:45	32%	4%	0.6%	28%
WN 4306 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 14:55	DAL 20:00	36%	10%	0.6%	27%
WN 2388 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 17:50	DAL 22:55	37%	14%	0.6%	15%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON